A call to the unreasonable, the idiosyncratic, and the defiant ones who know our industry was built by pushing envelopes, raising standards, and separating the vinyl from the leather.
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Stuart Canon, a member of Sacramento Beer Enthusiasts...
"I think it seems like there two kinds of stagnation you are talking about: market, and cultural/maybe creative stagnation. Market is one thing and alcohol sales are down across the board from what I understand so it's not just beer. I come from working in wine and ive always thought that an issue with beer culture is the obsession with the next new thing and always chasing something different. In wine, you have houses that have been around hundreds of years and no one expects them to make a wine that we've never heard of. North Coast Brewing has been making really good beers and those beers are still good, but beer drinkers will leave behind their favorites for whatever is the next thing. I use north coast as an example because i dont think of them as a very experimental brewery and they mostly have the same group of beers they have had for a long time. It's unreasonable to expect there to always be something new, in my opinion. I'm not sure what that means for how breweries compete with one another but certainly jumping the shark isn't working now that many sharks have been jumped. I think beer is just grown to be in the position a lot of other alcohol is in where people drink their brand of whiskey and people know the big names and off the road names down in Paso Robles wine. Sure people are putting peanut butter in whiskey now but largely you know Heaven Hill has been putting out Evan Williams since the 50s and Chateau Lafite Rothschilde has been around since 1855 and Bayerische Staatsbrauerei Weihenstephan is supposedly the oldest brewery in the world and they still have been making a relatively stable portfolio of classic German beer. Maybe I'm one of the assholes that beer wants to keep out but I think this reckoning has always been coming if you build your culture around new new new. I mean even Apple seems less exciting and they are constantly removing features from their phone. Maybe that's the next wave- the unbeer. Beer without a headphone jack. The milkshake comes separately from the sour."
My response...
"I hope my piece conveyed that "shark-jumping" isn’t the only way to create novelty and reignite customer interest.
Take the side-pull faucet, for example. It’s traditionally used for Pilsners—one of the most conventional, well-established beer styles. Yet a "Slow Pour Pils" can draw lines out the door, proving that even a subtle shift in presentation can feel fresh and exciting.
And while we might quibble over Scrimshaw’s quality, you're right to highlight the high brewhouse standards of most North Coast beers. But they’ve grown stale in other ways. The industry has moved forward—particularly in packaging and freshness—and they’ve been slow to keep up.
I believe brands in this position have an opportunity. Refinement and consumer education can pave the way for renewed enthusiasm. Make a big bet! If not a new beer style, then a rebrand. If not a rebrand, then a new format. Something. Anything. Because standing still is the surest way to fade into the background."
To clarify my reply based on Stuart's comments, I agree all breweries don't need to constantly chase the "new" thing. While innovation occasionally yields something very cool, my mind gravitates to many older beers/brands that retained their individuality and for me were standard-bearers of a certain beer style or unique taste.
-Anchor Steam
-Moonlight Death & Taxes
-Anderson Valley Boont Amber
-Allagash White
-Traditional Belgians
-Some of the original American aged Sours
Some of these may have compromised quality in recent years (freshness, distribution, mergers & acquisitions, etc) or been deluged by copycats. But for a long time if I walked into a bar and saw these on tap, they were singular. That's what a brand aims for. A bar might have had 8 taps, but sometimes I felt more variety in those 8 taps than I do with 30 taps today.
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Jack Alexander of Burning Barrel Brewing & Spirits...
"Consumer tastes continue to evolve, and the introduction of seltzers, RTDs, other categories show that that there's still interest in alcoholic beverages, and the beer market has exploded to include so many different styles, I find it still very interesting and compelling. I think the future is still very bright for the brewery industry, but the bar has been raised.
It seems to me that there are three major categories of consumption: tasting room, restaurant, and retail (selling in stores). With costs having exploded after Covid, a brewery — I think — had to pick what was going to be a realm they would compete in. It takes a lot of money to compete and stand out in any one area.
The expectation of the tasting room experience is higher than it used to be, as more places opened and began competing for the beer-drinking-experience. This is a luxury. It used to be that a place could open in a spartan industrial space, and people would crowd in. While that can still work for a bit, I think people are looking for a place to hang out. The look, the music, whether you have TVs, places for kids (or places free of kids), etc., all work out to create your consumer experience. You need to have something available for any type of consumer — a style that almost anyone could enjoy. That means a lot of taps, and a lot of beer to manage.
I think the in-person beer market is just competing more for the disposable income than it used to, and people are more interested in the overall experience than ever. If you can get by with the majority of your business driven by a direct-to-consumer (on-site or to-go) this is the most profitable, but the least scalable.
I think the restaurant space is still about the beer. If you have great beer, and can get it out into the market people will order it. They don’t care what your tasting room is like. They may not even know where your brewery is, but if they’ve had the beer and know it’s good, they’ll order it. But then, the restaurant model is at the mercy of the restaurants. So many places closed during & after Covid. Lots of places closed owing breweries money, and even getting kegs back was an adventure.
The retail space is where the most competition is, IMO. That’s where you are up against RTDs, hard seltzers, and high-quality regional breweries. Margins are low, how the beer is treated is often impossible to control, so your brand is at the whim of the retailer. If you have economies of scale to make money in retail, more power to you. Outside of places that specialize in craft beer, we don’t sell to retail."
My response...
"Generally I don't disagree with anything you've written here. Get enough beers in me and I might start arguing that playing with seltzers and RTDs might be conspiring in our own demise long-term. I am still working that one out.
Also, given my experiences at HenHouse, I have much to say about "how the beer is treated is often impossible to control," but that is probably another article."
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Bill Fishman, a friend of my father's who has known me since birth and been drinking Lagunitas IPA since it was brewed in the town of Lagunitas...
"I wonder where consumers tastes figure into the equation. I remember you serving a sour beer paired with some kind of cheese at an event in Napa many years ago. I thought it was vile; and I'm guessing there's not a lot of consumer demand. But I appreciated the thought behind the experience. IPA remains my favorite variety, but the proliferation of IPAs has allowed me to appreciate differences and pick favorites. The technical side of the brewing is not my focus. It just needs to taste good."
My response...
"Anyone who creates or curates for a living has a dual relationship to consumer tastes. Sometimes we shape them, and other times we react to them.
Let's take the IPAs you enjoy for example. Long before they became the dominant style, those same hop-forward, bitter flavors were considered too extreme, and the hop varieties that the modern IPA is built on would have been rejected as offering aromas that were “inappropriate for beer." As late as 2008, I know a major distributor telling an upstart brewer, "You will never build a brewery on an IPA."
Thankfully, some stubborn breweries and publicans knew better. They weren’t just reacting to demand; they were creating it, trusting their instincts and pushing boundaries because they believed in what they had.
In the ‘90s and early 2000s, they introduced the style and educated consumers about these new flavors and intensity levels. But once that foundation was laid, the industry itself had to evolve before IPA could achieve the mainstream, “down-market” success it enjoys today.
By the late 2000s and 2010s, pioneering breweries like Russian River, Moonlight, and HenHouse weren’t just making IPAs; they were actively shaping how people understood and consumed them. A beer style so dependent on fresh aroma required a complete rethink of storage, distribution, and retailer education. Refrigeration, shorter shelf life, and proper handling all became crucial to presenting IPA as the brewer intended.
So, IPA doesn't become IPA without craft beer creators intentionally and defiantly shaping consumer taste and craft beer curators reacting to that shift in the consumer's best interest.
My piece argues that good things happen in this industry when we reject conventional wisdom and act on the consumer's behalf. However, I fear that we are no longer doing enough of either."
Nice piece Sayre. Definitely captures the moment well, cutting through the haze and pouring a clear-beer picture of the industry. What it is, what it was, and what it could be, nucleations and all.
As a knowledgeable beer consumer, but someone outside the industry, I am nostalgic for the days of innovation and personal discovery. Early on, even a Newcastle or Racer 5 was novel compared to most menu options. As my palette refined, I would get excited about a Death & Taxes or a Fritz Briem 1809, not only because these were excellent but also very distinct (the only Black Lager or Berlinerweisse available to me in most cases). Breweries like Moonlight or The Bruery would experiment constantly, with wildly varying results.
Now I can get 10 variations of IPA at every brewery... and often a mexican-style lager, pilsner, stout or sour to round out the menu. A local store might have 200 of the same shaped can, which feign variety but are indistinguishable from afar. Very little excites me. Maybe it's because I'm old, hardened, and have to take care of a kid at 7am. Maybe it's because while many of the beers are good, hardly any of it is unique.
I suppose a Cicerone's role is to teach and curate. I miss beer bars where this was done well. Part of the difficulty, I understand, is that I can get almost everything at a store, on my own. It's a copycat culture and in a saturated market, one brewery cannibalizes another. Consolidation of the industry might be necessary. But for the survivors, I think it would serve them well to consider their unique brand. I'm most likely to return to a brewery for 1-2 unique flagship products, along with some limited/small-batch/brewery-only experimentation. Not for a huge rotation of SKUs or 10 IPAs that are the effectively the same as 10 IPAs at 10 other breweries in my town.
Well done, this is exactly what's been on my mind about beer today and you've put it into the perfect words. I'm not sure how we get to our next era, but ideas like this are the first step, so thank you!
The top beer man in the U.S. speaks! Love your words, and I was definitely listening.
Reading through, I couldn’t help but think about the laws of nature: what goes up must come down. Then back up. Then down again. This tidal shift, this sea level change—it’s not something you can just throw some sandbags up for. When the tide goes out, you don’t fight it—you innovate, adapt, and move with the current.
Consumers drinking preferences are shifting in a massive way. Getting drunk at a bar isn’t as cool or sexy as it used to be. Millennials hit a certain age and realized the diminishing returns of two beers and the inevitable hangover. We turned 40 and don’t drink like we did at 30. Gen Z values health—of both body and planet. Gen X? Statistically, they’re carrying on as they do. Boomers? Aging out of alcohol. This isn’t a fad—it’s a full-on movement spanning multiple generations for different reasons: society is drinking less, seeking more wellness, and craving healthier options that are freaking delicious.
So give me a Belgian Dubbel that’s Non Alcoholic with a new yeast strain that produces less ABV. I’m 43, and want a big, old-world funk red wine for date night. (These actually exist!) I want more! Because I know I don’t want ethanol in my life—but I LOVE beer and geeking out on it. I’ve brewed over 100 batches myself.
But alcohol? It changes my mood, my whole day, my productivity, my skin, my energy—my entire verve for life. And if it makes someone scoff at me for wanting more wellness in my life and less alcohol, that’s kinda sad. Everyone should be on board for feeling better the next day and able to have a badass beer any day.
Give us an amazing, badass option because we’re in the business of getting together, connecting, cheersing an epic beverage that’s blowing our minds, learning about it, and creating great memories. This happens whether there is alcohol in the glass or not. Innovate, pivot, adapt, and make badass Non Alcoholic Beer.
Thanks for reading, Joshua. I would love to have an extended conversation with you about what you are building with Ocean Beach Cafe and the NA movement in general.
I think we agree that the best thing a drink/bar can do is provide folks with a venue for social interaction. But, I am skeptical of any form of abstinence, and I think that alcohol/slight inebriation can help people overcome their repressions and become more social and outgoing.
I know that not everyone has as positive a relationship with ethanol as I do. I am very intrigued by the work you and others are doing to give folks living low and no-alcohol lifestyles a place in our industry. Your work and the innovation Berkeley Yeast is doing across the board are perfect examples of the "envelope pushing" I call for in this piece.
That said, NA is a tricky category for most breweries to enter. The NA market makes sense for large breweries like Deschutes and Sierra, or brands that contract their production AND have access to grocery store and liquor store shelves, like Fort Point.
However, for the overwhelming majority of breweries, NA beer is expensive to brew, precarious to keep safely, and tricky to brand/present in ways that are both compliant and coherent. Also, I worry that the shift away from alcohol could have more to do with young people's lack of income than anything else. While people like you are working to change this, at present, there is not much evidence that NA consumers invest the same level of meaning in their choices when purchasing NA beer.
If I had to make a prediction, I would say that the NA beer game will eventually be dominated by the largest craft brewers, and a handful of operations that exclusively make NA products.
Just my two cents. As I said, we should talk more!
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Stuart Canon, a member of Sacramento Beer Enthusiasts...
"I think it seems like there two kinds of stagnation you are talking about: market, and cultural/maybe creative stagnation. Market is one thing and alcohol sales are down across the board from what I understand so it's not just beer. I come from working in wine and ive always thought that an issue with beer culture is the obsession with the next new thing and always chasing something different. In wine, you have houses that have been around hundreds of years and no one expects them to make a wine that we've never heard of. North Coast Brewing has been making really good beers and those beers are still good, but beer drinkers will leave behind their favorites for whatever is the next thing. I use north coast as an example because i dont think of them as a very experimental brewery and they mostly have the same group of beers they have had for a long time. It's unreasonable to expect there to always be something new, in my opinion. I'm not sure what that means for how breweries compete with one another but certainly jumping the shark isn't working now that many sharks have been jumped. I think beer is just grown to be in the position a lot of other alcohol is in where people drink their brand of whiskey and people know the big names and off the road names down in Paso Robles wine. Sure people are putting peanut butter in whiskey now but largely you know Heaven Hill has been putting out Evan Williams since the 50s and Chateau Lafite Rothschilde has been around since 1855 and Bayerische Staatsbrauerei Weihenstephan is supposedly the oldest brewery in the world and they still have been making a relatively stable portfolio of classic German beer. Maybe I'm one of the assholes that beer wants to keep out but I think this reckoning has always been coming if you build your culture around new new new. I mean even Apple seems less exciting and they are constantly removing features from their phone. Maybe that's the next wave- the unbeer. Beer without a headphone jack. The milkshake comes separately from the sour."
My response...
"I hope my piece conveyed that "shark-jumping" isn’t the only way to create novelty and reignite customer interest.
Take the side-pull faucet, for example. It’s traditionally used for Pilsners—one of the most conventional, well-established beer styles. Yet a "Slow Pour Pils" can draw lines out the door, proving that even a subtle shift in presentation can feel fresh and exciting.
And while we might quibble over Scrimshaw’s quality, you're right to highlight the high brewhouse standards of most North Coast beers. But they’ve grown stale in other ways. The industry has moved forward—particularly in packaging and freshness—and they’ve been slow to keep up.
I believe brands in this position have an opportunity. Refinement and consumer education can pave the way for renewed enthusiasm. Make a big bet! If not a new beer style, then a rebrand. If not a rebrand, then a new format. Something. Anything. Because standing still is the surest way to fade into the background."
To clarify my reply based on Stuart's comments, I agree all breweries don't need to constantly chase the "new" thing. While innovation occasionally yields something very cool, my mind gravitates to many older beers/brands that retained their individuality and for me were standard-bearers of a certain beer style or unique taste.
-Anchor Steam
-Moonlight Death & Taxes
-Anderson Valley Boont Amber
-Allagash White
-Traditional Belgians
-Some of the original American aged Sours
Some of these may have compromised quality in recent years (freshness, distribution, mergers & acquisitions, etc) or been deluged by copycats. But for a long time if I walked into a bar and saw these on tap, they were singular. That's what a brand aims for. A bar might have had 8 taps, but sometimes I felt more variety in those 8 taps than I do with 30 taps today.
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Jack Alexander of Burning Barrel Brewing & Spirits...
"Consumer tastes continue to evolve, and the introduction of seltzers, RTDs, other categories show that that there's still interest in alcoholic beverages, and the beer market has exploded to include so many different styles, I find it still very interesting and compelling. I think the future is still very bright for the brewery industry, but the bar has been raised.
It seems to me that there are three major categories of consumption: tasting room, restaurant, and retail (selling in stores). With costs having exploded after Covid, a brewery — I think — had to pick what was going to be a realm they would compete in. It takes a lot of money to compete and stand out in any one area.
The expectation of the tasting room experience is higher than it used to be, as more places opened and began competing for the beer-drinking-experience. This is a luxury. It used to be that a place could open in a spartan industrial space, and people would crowd in. While that can still work for a bit, I think people are looking for a place to hang out. The look, the music, whether you have TVs, places for kids (or places free of kids), etc., all work out to create your consumer experience. You need to have something available for any type of consumer — a style that almost anyone could enjoy. That means a lot of taps, and a lot of beer to manage.
I think the in-person beer market is just competing more for the disposable income than it used to, and people are more interested in the overall experience than ever. If you can get by with the majority of your business driven by a direct-to-consumer (on-site or to-go) this is the most profitable, but the least scalable.
I think the restaurant space is still about the beer. If you have great beer, and can get it out into the market people will order it. They don’t care what your tasting room is like. They may not even know where your brewery is, but if they’ve had the beer and know it’s good, they’ll order it. But then, the restaurant model is at the mercy of the restaurants. So many places closed during & after Covid. Lots of places closed owing breweries money, and even getting kegs back was an adventure.
The retail space is where the most competition is, IMO. That’s where you are up against RTDs, hard seltzers, and high-quality regional breweries. Margins are low, how the beer is treated is often impossible to control, so your brand is at the whim of the retailer. If you have economies of scale to make money in retail, more power to you. Outside of places that specialize in craft beer, we don’t sell to retail."
My response...
"Generally I don't disagree with anything you've written here. Get enough beers in me and I might start arguing that playing with seltzers and RTDs might be conspiring in our own demise long-term. I am still working that one out.
Also, given my experiences at HenHouse, I have much to say about "how the beer is treated is often impossible to control," but that is probably another article."
This piece has received some thoughtful responses on my other feeds and I want to share a couple of them, along with my responses, with those of you following here...
From Bill Fishman, a friend of my father's who has known me since birth and been drinking Lagunitas IPA since it was brewed in the town of Lagunitas...
"I wonder where consumers tastes figure into the equation. I remember you serving a sour beer paired with some kind of cheese at an event in Napa many years ago. I thought it was vile; and I'm guessing there's not a lot of consumer demand. But I appreciated the thought behind the experience. IPA remains my favorite variety, but the proliferation of IPAs has allowed me to appreciate differences and pick favorites. The technical side of the brewing is not my focus. It just needs to taste good."
My response...
"Anyone who creates or curates for a living has a dual relationship to consumer tastes. Sometimes we shape them, and other times we react to them.
Let's take the IPAs you enjoy for example. Long before they became the dominant style, those same hop-forward, bitter flavors were considered too extreme, and the hop varieties that the modern IPA is built on would have been rejected as offering aromas that were “inappropriate for beer." As late as 2008, I know a major distributor telling an upstart brewer, "You will never build a brewery on an IPA."
Thankfully, some stubborn breweries and publicans knew better. They weren’t just reacting to demand; they were creating it, trusting their instincts and pushing boundaries because they believed in what they had.
In the ‘90s and early 2000s, they introduced the style and educated consumers about these new flavors and intensity levels. But once that foundation was laid, the industry itself had to evolve before IPA could achieve the mainstream, “down-market” success it enjoys today.
By the late 2000s and 2010s, pioneering breweries like Russian River, Moonlight, and HenHouse weren’t just making IPAs; they were actively shaping how people understood and consumed them. A beer style so dependent on fresh aroma required a complete rethink of storage, distribution, and retailer education. Refrigeration, shorter shelf life, and proper handling all became crucial to presenting IPA as the brewer intended.
So, IPA doesn't become IPA without craft beer creators intentionally and defiantly shaping consumer taste and craft beer curators reacting to that shift in the consumer's best interest.
My piece argues that good things happen in this industry when we reject conventional wisdom and act on the consumer's behalf. However, I fear that we are no longer doing enough of either."
Nice piece Sayre. Definitely captures the moment well, cutting through the haze and pouring a clear-beer picture of the industry. What it is, what it was, and what it could be, nucleations and all.
I see what you did there, Fridge!
As a knowledgeable beer consumer, but someone outside the industry, I am nostalgic for the days of innovation and personal discovery. Early on, even a Newcastle or Racer 5 was novel compared to most menu options. As my palette refined, I would get excited about a Death & Taxes or a Fritz Briem 1809, not only because these were excellent but also very distinct (the only Black Lager or Berlinerweisse available to me in most cases). Breweries like Moonlight or The Bruery would experiment constantly, with wildly varying results.
Now I can get 10 variations of IPA at every brewery... and often a mexican-style lager, pilsner, stout or sour to round out the menu. A local store might have 200 of the same shaped can, which feign variety but are indistinguishable from afar. Very little excites me. Maybe it's because I'm old, hardened, and have to take care of a kid at 7am. Maybe it's because while many of the beers are good, hardly any of it is unique.
I suppose a Cicerone's role is to teach and curate. I miss beer bars where this was done well. Part of the difficulty, I understand, is that I can get almost everything at a store, on my own. It's a copycat culture and in a saturated market, one brewery cannibalizes another. Consolidation of the industry might be necessary. But for the survivors, I think it would serve them well to consider their unique brand. I'm most likely to return to a brewery for 1-2 unique flagship products, along with some limited/small-batch/brewery-only experimentation. Not for a huge rotation of SKUs or 10 IPAs that are the effectively the same as 10 IPAs at 10 other breweries in my town.
Well said, Joe!
Well done, this is exactly what's been on my mind about beer today and you've put it into the perfect words. I'm not sure how we get to our next era, but ideas like this are the first step, so thank you!
Awesome piece my friend.
Wow......that checked off all boxes when it boils down to great reads and the premise to watching an award winning series. Dope shhhh Sayre!!!
Thanks Mario!
The top beer man in the U.S. speaks! Love your words, and I was definitely listening.
Reading through, I couldn’t help but think about the laws of nature: what goes up must come down. Then back up. Then down again. This tidal shift, this sea level change—it’s not something you can just throw some sandbags up for. When the tide goes out, you don’t fight it—you innovate, adapt, and move with the current.
Consumers drinking preferences are shifting in a massive way. Getting drunk at a bar isn’t as cool or sexy as it used to be. Millennials hit a certain age and realized the diminishing returns of two beers and the inevitable hangover. We turned 40 and don’t drink like we did at 30. Gen Z values health—of both body and planet. Gen X? Statistically, they’re carrying on as they do. Boomers? Aging out of alcohol. This isn’t a fad—it’s a full-on movement spanning multiple generations for different reasons: society is drinking less, seeking more wellness, and craving healthier options that are freaking delicious.
So give me a Belgian Dubbel that’s Non Alcoholic with a new yeast strain that produces less ABV. I’m 43, and want a big, old-world funk red wine for date night. (These actually exist!) I want more! Because I know I don’t want ethanol in my life—but I LOVE beer and geeking out on it. I’ve brewed over 100 batches myself.
But alcohol? It changes my mood, my whole day, my productivity, my skin, my energy—my entire verve for life. And if it makes someone scoff at me for wanting more wellness in my life and less alcohol, that’s kinda sad. Everyone should be on board for feeling better the next day and able to have a badass beer any day.
Give us an amazing, badass option because we’re in the business of getting together, connecting, cheersing an epic beverage that’s blowing our minds, learning about it, and creating great memories. This happens whether there is alcohol in the glass or not. Innovate, pivot, adapt, and make badass Non Alcoholic Beer.
Thanks for reading, Joshua. I would love to have an extended conversation with you about what you are building with Ocean Beach Cafe and the NA movement in general.
I think we agree that the best thing a drink/bar can do is provide folks with a venue for social interaction. But, I am skeptical of any form of abstinence, and I think that alcohol/slight inebriation can help people overcome their repressions and become more social and outgoing.
I know that not everyone has as positive a relationship with ethanol as I do. I am very intrigued by the work you and others are doing to give folks living low and no-alcohol lifestyles a place in our industry. Your work and the innovation Berkeley Yeast is doing across the board are perfect examples of the "envelope pushing" I call for in this piece.
That said, NA is a tricky category for most breweries to enter. The NA market makes sense for large breweries like Deschutes and Sierra, or brands that contract their production AND have access to grocery store and liquor store shelves, like Fort Point.
However, for the overwhelming majority of breweries, NA beer is expensive to brew, precarious to keep safely, and tricky to brand/present in ways that are both compliant and coherent. Also, I worry that the shift away from alcohol could have more to do with young people's lack of income than anything else. While people like you are working to change this, at present, there is not much evidence that NA consumers invest the same level of meaning in their choices when purchasing NA beer.
If I had to make a prediction, I would say that the NA beer game will eventually be dominated by the largest craft brewers, and a handful of operations that exclusively make NA products.
Just my two cents. As I said, we should talk more!